Reliability and Risk Evaluation

Reliability and Risk Evaluation

 

Summary of Activities

The rapid development of Hong Kong and great concentrations of vehicles focused in the urban areas have put tremendous pressure on the existing road network particularly under conditions with non-recurrent congestion due to bad weather and/or traffic incidents. Development of intelligent transportation systems for provision of real-time travel information are therefore important for assessment of network and travel time reliability and for incident management. The areas of reliability and risk evaluation in the Centre include reliability analysis on transport networks with uncertainty, on-line travel time estimation, short-term travel time prediction, assessment of travel time reliability, incident detection, estimation of the impact of incidents, evaluation and generation of traffic incident management strategies, etc. Technological services provided include the followings:

  • Transport network reliability analysis and assessment
  • Incident detection and management study
  • Development of intelligent transportation systems
  • Risk analysis of traffic demand and revenue forecasts for build-operate-transfer road projects

Representative Projects

·           Advanced models for assessing the effects of non-concurrent congestion on road network reliability

·           Modelling and managing uncertainties in transport network

·           Dynamic transport network reliability and vulnerability analysis

·           Transport network reliability analysis for major urban hazards

·           Development of an Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) Testbed for real-time navigation and cross-boundary container logistics management

·           Real-time traffic incident management system for Hong Kong

·           Advanced modelling techniques for applications of intelligent transportation systems

·           Transport network reliability analysis

·           Integration of GIS with annual traffic census for transport information system applications

·           Development of Real-time Travel Information System (RTIS) for Hong Kong

·           Development of Driving Route Search (DRS) service platform for Hong Kong

·           Development of Journey Time Indication System (JTIS) for Kowloon

·           Mechanism to determine sensitivity of Western Harbour Crossing’s traffic

 

 

 

 

Real-time travel information system (RTIS)

(http://rtis.td.gov.hk)

PDA version of real-time travel information system (RTIS)

 

On-site experiment of real-time traffic data collection using RFID reader and video detector

Driving route search service platform

Existing journey time indicators in Hong Kong Island

Proposed journey time indicators in Kowloon

Major Facilities

  • Computer facilities and software for data fusion and on-line travel time estimation
  • GIS software and website for real-time travel information system
  • Video cameras for recording real-time traffic condition

Selected Publications

1.         Bell, M.G.H., Schmoecker, J.D., Iida, Y., and Lam, W.H.K. (2002) “Transit network reliability: An application of absorbing Markov chains”, Transportation and Traffic Theory in the 21st Century, Edited by Taylor, M.A.P., Elsevier, Oxford, pp. 43-62.

2.         Chan, K.S., and Lam, W.H.K. (2005) “Impact of road pricing on road network reliability”, Journal of Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, 6: 2060-2075.

3.         Connors, R.D., Sumalee, A., and Watling, D.P. (2007) “Sensitivity analysis of the variable demand probit stochastic user equilibrium with multiple user-classes”, Transportation Research B, 41(6): 593-615.

4.         Heydecker, B.G., Lam, W.H.K., and Zhang, N. (2007) “Use of travel demand and satisfaction to assess road network reliability”, Transportmetrica, 3(2): 139-171.

5.         Kurauchi, F, and Sumalee, A. (2008) “Evaluation and enhancement of transport network reliability: Network equilibrium based approach”, Journal of Advanced Transportation, 42(3): 209-212.

6.        Lam, W.H.K., and Tam, M.L. (2003) “Reliability assessment on searching time for parking in urban areas”, The Network Reliability of Transport, Edited by Iida Y., and Bell, M.G.H., Elsevier, Oxford, pp. 61-78.

7.         Lam, W.H.K., and Wong, G.C.K. (2003) “A macroscopic approach to evaluate the effect of incident on travel time reliability of a highway”, Journal of Eastern Society for Transportation Studies, 5: 1065-1074.

8.         Lam, W.H.K., Zhang, N., and Lo, H.K. (2007) “A reliability-based user equilibrium model for traffic assignment”, Reliability and Vulnerability in Critical Infrastructure: A Quantitative Geographic Perspective, Edited by Murray, A.T., and Grubesic, T., Springer, Berlin, pp. 151-172.

9.         Lam, W.H.K., Shao, H., and Sumalee, A. (2008) “Modeling impacts of adverse weather conditions on a road network with uncertainties in demand and supply”, Transportation Research B, 42(10): 890-810.

10.     Li, Z.C., Lam, W.H.K., Wong, S.C., Huang, H.J., and Zhu, D.L. (2008) “Reliability evaluation for stochastic and time-dependent networks with multiple parking facilities”, Networks and Spatial Economics, 8(4): 355-381.

11.     Shao, H., Lam, W.H.K., Meng, Q., and Tam, M.L. (2006) “Demand-driven traffic assignment problem based on travel time reliability”, Transportation Research Record, 1985: 220-230.

12.     Shao, H., Lam, W.H.K., and Tam, M.L. (2006) “A reliability-based stochastic traffic assignment model for network with multiple user classes under uncertainty in demand”, Networks and Spatial Economics, 6(3-4): 173-204.

13.     Shao, H., Lam, W.H.K., Tam, M.L., and Yuan, X.M. (2008) “Modelling rain effects on risk-taking behaviours of multi-user classes in road networks with uncertainty”, Journal of Advanced Transportation, 42(3): 265-290.

14.     Sumalee, A., and Watling, D.P. (2008) “Partition-based algorithm for estimating transportation network reliability with dependent link failures”, Journal of Advanced Transportation, 42(3): 213-238.

15.    Tam, M.L., and Lam, W.H.K. (2007) “Using automatic vehicle identification and global positioning system Data for travel time estimation in Hong Kong”, Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, 7: 165-179.

16.     Tam, M.L., and Lam, W.H.K. (2008) “Using automatic vehicle identification data for travel time estimation in Hong Kong”, Transportmetrica, 4(3): 179-194.

17.     Sumalee, A., and Kurauchi, F. (2006) “Reliability and emergency issues in transportation network analysis”, Networks and Spatial Economics, 6(3-4): 169-172.

18.     Sumalee, A., and Kurauchi, F. (2006) “Network capacity reliability analysis considering traffic regulation after a major disaster”, Networks and Spatial Economics, 6(3-4): 205-219.

19.     Sumalee, A., Watling, D.P., and Nakayama, S. (2006) “Reliable network design problem - Case with uncertain demand and total travel time reliability”, Transportation Research Record, 1964: 81-90.

20.    Yang, L., and Lam, W.H.K. (2006) “Probit-type reliability-based transit network assignment”, Transportation Research Record, 1977: 154-163.

21.     Yin, Y., Lam, W.H.K., and Ieda, H. (2002) “Modeling risk-taking behavior in queuing networks with advanced traveler information systems”, Transportation and Traffic Theory in the 21st Century, Edited by Taylor, M.A.P., Elsevier, Oxford, pp. 309-328.

22.     Yin, Y., Lam, W.H.K., and Ieda, H. (2003) “Reliability assessment on transit network services”, The Network Reliability of Transport, Edited by Iida, Y., and Bell, M.G.H., Elsevier, Oxford, pp. 119-132.

23.     Yin, Y., Miller, M.A., and Lam, W.H.K. (2003) “A simulation-based reliability assessment approach for congested transit network”, Journal of Advanced Transportation, 38(1): 27-44.

24.     Yin, Y., Lam, W.H.K., and Ieda, H. (2004) “New technology and the modeling of risk-taking behavior in congested road networks”, Transportation Research C, 12(3-4): 171-192.

 

Contact Information of the contact person

Prof. William Hing-Keung Lam

Department of Civil & Structural Engineering

The Hong Kong Polytechnic University

Kowloon, Hong Kong

 

Fax: + 852 - 2334 6389

Phone: + 852 - 2766 6045

E-mail: cehklam@polyu.edu.hk

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